Presidential Follies
I've been wanting to write regularly about the polics of Latin America, because we get so little news about what happens there. Here is my opinion of what has happened during the first week of December 2023.
Venezuela's border dispute with Guyana has attracted the most attention in the news. The liberaion of Latin America from Spain left the borders between many coutbries in dispute and led to several wars. The most recent was a skirmish between Peru and Ecuador. The dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo territory is more serious, if only because Venezuela is claim almost two thirds of Guyana is actually Venezuelan territory. The reason for the dispute is that oil has been dicovered off the coast of the Essequibo region. Last Sunday Venezuela held a referendum and 95% of the people who voted agreed with the government's position. This is not surprising, because Venezuelans are taught that Essequibo was stolen from Venezuela from the grade school level up. The question is, what is Venezuela's next move. the rest of the world wants to let sleeping dogs lie and the border between the two countries to remain where it is. But Venezuela could send its troops into Essequibo and its army is larger and better equipped than Guyana's. How will the world react to this? Brazil has already moved some troops to the border of Guyana. At the very least there would be a multi-nation embargo of Venezuela, although it is hard to see how a new embargo would make its people more miserable than they are now. Would the United States or Great Britain send troops to defend Guyana? That seems unlikely to me, because Western imperialism has left a bad taste in the mouth of Latin America. But anything might happen in the volatile dispute, from a war of words to a real war between the United States and Venezuela.
The price of bitcoin has risen in anticipation of a change in financial regulation in the United States. The rise has put El Salvador's bitcoin investment into the black. El Salvador's President Bukele boasted about this on Twitter and retweeted his critics who thought bitcoin would drive El Salvador into bankruptcy. This was never possible, as the investments were small compared to the size of the budget. But it is true that President Bukele originally made his investments impulsively, sometimes while sitting in his bathroom, trying to "buy the dip." Since then El Salvador has had a more disciplined investment strategy, buying one bitcoin a day. It is still too early to say what benefits President Bukele's bitcoin strategy might mean for El Salvador. I haven't heard any talk of building Bitcoin City recently. The benefits seeem minimal, other than attracting the attention and support of the bitcoin community. But at least the rise in bitcoin removes one criticism of President Bukele in his reelection campaign, that he has thrown away the country's money on a whim.