Noboa: Ecuadorś Bukele?
When President Noboa was elected President of Ecuador, some compared him to President Bukele of El Salvador. There are some similarities. Both are sons of weaalthy businessmen. And both became president at a young age, with little prvious experience in government. But I dom believe President Noboa will make as big a splash in Ecuador as President Bukele has in El Salvador.
President Noboa was elected to fill the remaining term of President Lasso after Lasso dissolved the old legislature and resigned from office, in a provision of the constitution colorfully known as the "death cross." This means the new President does not have a full term to carry out his plans. And his party does not have a majority in the legislature, he allied himself with the socialist party, which places further limits on what he will be able to accomplish.
The first and perhaps most serious problem of Ecuador is its budget deficit. Unfortunately, Ecuador does not control its own corruency. It has a dollarized economy, which means it cannot stimulate exports by devaluing its currency. The only way to balance the budget is to raise taxes or cut government expenditures. The trouble with these measures, is that they reduce economic growth, reducing tax income, and requiring even more cutbacks. This is the same problem Greece found itself in with the Euro in the European Union and the solution could be as painful, depending on how tough the IMF is with its loan provisions. I hope the IMF has learned its lesson from Greece. And, no, to the bitcoineros out there, bitcoin soesn't fix this.
This other major problem Ecuador faces is crime. The port city of Guayaquil has become a center for the export of South America's most famous product, drugs. This has led to an increase in crime, including murders. One of the candidates for President, Ferdinand Villavincencio, was assasinated during the campaign and President Noboa says that he and his cabinet receive death threats daily. There is broad support for get tough measures for crime. But it is not clear the new President can adopt the drastic measures of El Salvador. So far, posession of drugs has been criminalized again and there are tougher searches at the airports and ports. The President claims that a group of gangsters has asked to arrange a peace deal.
So what has President Noboa done so far since taking office in December? He got into a fight with his Vice President and sent her into exile to seek a peace deal between Palestine and Israel. Something that will happen when hell freezes over. He went to New York to lead a meeting of the United Nations Security Council. It is Ecuador's turn to lead the Council's procedings. And then he went to Argentina to attend the inauguration of its new President, Miliel, and to meet with leaders of other countries. So not too bad a start to the President Noboa's administration, but more will be needed to solve Ecuador's problems.